The world's largest consumer of sugar, India, is grappling with a sugar shortage and soaring prices, leading to the country's first significant sugar imports in nearly a decade. Due to a 40% increase in prices over the past two months, the Indian government has imported 1 million tonnes of sugar to avoid a bitter festive season. The surge in demand is due to upcoming festivals such as Ganesh Chaturthi, Dussehra, Diwali, and the busy wedding season, along with increased stocking by food and beverage companies for their busiest sales period. Production is now expected to reach 30.6 million tonnes in the current sugar season, 11% below the government's earlier estimate of 34.3 million tonnes. The shortage can be attributed to factors such as lower sugarcane production due to reduced rainfall during El Niño, hoarding, and tighter global supplies after adverse weather affected major producers. However, experts suggest that overestimating India's own production and allowing sugar exports before the extent of the shortfall became clear also played a significant role. The government initially approved 1.5 million tonnes of exports this season but halted them in May due to the impending shortage. With little sugar to spare, India consumed more than 28 million tonnes last season and expects nearly three million tonnes to be diverted to ethanol production this year. The imports will help provide a buffer during this challenging period. The Indian government is taking measures such as allowing sugar refineries in special economic zones to sell duty-free sugar in the domestic market for three months starting from 1 September, and encouraging early cane crushing to build stocks before the new harvest arrives in October. However, the crop also faces risks from erratic weather, which could further exacerbate the situation. The failure to anticipate the sugar shortfall before allowing exports has raised questions about the government's forecasting abilities, and some experts blame the diversion of sugarcane to ethanol production for the shortage in a deficit year.