In a strategic power play, Iranian leaders believe they are on the verge of victory over the United States in their control of the crucial Strait of Hormuz, a waterway responsible for a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas. With knowledge of dwindling U.S. weapon supplies and growing unpopularity of the war among Americans, Iran seeks to leverage these factors to force the U.S. to accept their authority over the strait. However, the risky strategy could backfire as President Trump has recently decimated Iran's top leadership, navy, and airforce, threatening escalation while also expressing optimism about ongoing talks. Domestically, Iran's economy has been battered due to a U.S. blockade, and mass protests have erupted just months ago. Furthermore, attempts to open the strait by force could incur high costs and potentially require American ground troops, while Iranian allies in Yemen could widen the conflict and disrupt another major trade route. Despite this, Iran is close to reaching a deal with Oman to manage the strait, but Tehran has set stringent conditions for the U.S., including permanent war end, naval blockade lift, military withdrawal, compensation for war damage, sanctions removal, and unconditional release of frozen assets. This formal control over part of the strait would be a significant win for Iran and a loss for the U.S., potentially setting a dangerous precedent that could disrupt global norms on freedom of navigation.